Not everybody made a lousy prediction on this year’s election results.
In introducing Penn Professor David Eisenhower at the University Club on January 19, 2017, Hadley Arkes of the James Wilson Center noted that the man for whom Camp David was named was confident in April of last year that the Donald could win. Professor Eisenhower noted that “all the women I know are defending Trump.”
That turned out to be a more scientific barometer than whatever the mainstream media were using. It should be noted that Professor Eisenhower is the grandson of one president and the son-in-law of another—Richard Nixon—who has spent at least two election eves in the White House.
“Crowds matter,” he observed, referring to the turnout at Trump rallies.
“I think elections crystalize early,” he said. “I don’t believe in late deciders.”
“They’re like death bed confessions.”
He also noted that “the elite does not see itself as undeserving.”
“They do not understand what happened.”
Nevertheless, he advises, “If you want to know what happens in the election, pay attention to where the candidates go. They have very elaborate polls.”
Thus, for example, Hillary Clinton spent two solid days in Philadelphia before November 8, 2016. She lost Pennsylvania.